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Restaurant Survival Score Calculator

Score your restaurant's 5-year survival odds from 0 to 100 across 8 controllable levers: prime cost, labor, direct vs marketplace revenue, repeat rate, cash runway, menu, reviews, and tech stack. See your single highest-impact fix.

The restaurant survival score rates your 5-year odds from 0 to 100 across 8 levers you control: prime cost (food + labor as a share of sales, benchmark at or under 60%), labor cost (benchmark 25% to 30%), share of revenue that is direct vs third-party marketplaces (benchmark majority direct, off 15% to 30% commission apps), repeat-customer rate (benchmark 25% or more), cash runway (benchmark 3+ months), menu differentiation, review volume, and tech-stack maturity. Each answer is weighted and compared to how a profitable operator answers. A score of 70+ signals strong odds, 45 to 69 is the fragile middle where most closures happen, and under 45 is high risk. For most at-risk operators the single highest-impact lever is revenue mix: shifting orders from third-party marketplaces that take 15% to 30% commission to a commission-free direct channel where you keep 100% of every sale and own your customer data.

Restaurant survival score

Answer 8 questions about the levers you actually control. Each answer is scored against how a profitable operator answers, and the gauge estimates your 5-year survival odds from 0 to 100.

Profitable operators keep prime cost at or under 60%

Profitable operators run labor around 25% to 30%

Resilient operators keep the majority of revenue direct, off 15% to 30% commission apps

Profitable operators see 25% or more of orders come from returning guests

Profitable operators hold at least 3 months of runway

Durable operators own signature items guests cannot get nearby

Strong operators carry 150+ reviews at a 4.0+ star average

Profitable operators run POS sync, direct ordering, and one customer database

Your 5-year survival score

Weighted across all 8 controllable levers

At risk, but fixable

You are inside the fragile middle where most closures happen. The single fix below moves the needle the most.

1

Your single highest-impact fix

Share of revenue that is direct vs third-party marketplaces

Too much of your revenue is renting from third-party marketplaces that charge 15% to 30% commission on every order. Moving repeat customers to a branded direct channel where you keep 100% of every sale and own your customer data is the single fastest lever on this list.

Direct revenue is the fastest lever you control

DirectOrders is commission-free, so you keep 100% of every sale with no per-order fees, own your customer data, and can be live in 2 hours or we white-glove you free.

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Every lever vs a profitable operator

The full bar is where a profitable operator scores. The filled portion is where you are today.

Prime cost (food + labor as a share of sales)

68/100

Labor cost as a share of sales

50/100

Share of revenue that is direct vs third-party marketplaces

42/100

Repeat-customer rate

45/100

Cash runway (months of operating cash on hand)

76/100

Menu differentiation

45/100

Review volume and rating

45/100

Tech stack maturity

40/100

Go deeper on the numbers

Restaurant success rateRestaurant failure rateBook a demo
What the survival score measures

The restaurant survival score estimates your 5-year survival odds from 0 to 100 by scoring 8 controllable levers against how a profitable operator answers: prime cost, labor cost, the split between direct and third-party marketplace revenue, repeat-customer rate, cash runway, menu differentiation, review volume, and tech-stack maturity.

The score is diagnostic, not a prediction. It exists to point you at the single change that improves your odds the most right now. For most restaurants stuck in the fragile middle, that change is revenue mix: too much money is renting from marketplaces at 15% to 30% commission instead of flowing through a direct channel where you keep 100% of every sale.

How to use this calculator

1

Answer all 8 questions honestly

Pull the numbers you know from your POS and accounting: prime cost and labor as a share of sales, roughly what portion of revenue comes direct vs from marketplaces, and your repeat-order rate. For the softer levers (menu, reviews, tech) pick the option that most accurately describes you, not the one you wish were true.

2

Read each benchmark line

Under every question is the profitable-operator benchmark and a colored dot: green means you are at or above benchmark, amber means you are in the risk zone, red means the lever is working against you. The dots let you spot the weak levers before you even look at the gauge.

3

Read the gauge

The gauge shows your weighted score from 0 to 100. 70 and above is the green band (strong odds), 45 to 69 is amber (at risk but fixable), and under 45 is red (high risk). The band note tells you what posture to take.

4

Act on the single highest-impact fix

The calculator surfaces one fix: the lever with the largest weighted headroom between where you are and where a profitable operator sits. Fixing that one lever moves your score more than any other single change, so start there instead of trying to fix everything at once.

5

Re-run after each change

Survival is not a one-time reading. Adjust a lever (say, shift 20 points of revenue from marketplace to direct) and watch the gauge move. Re-run monthly to confirm the levers you changed are holding.

How the score is weighted

Every lever is scored 0 to 100 based on your answer, then combined into a weighted average. The weights reflect how strongly each lever predicts survival for independent restaurants, not how easy it is to change. Prime cost carries the heaviest weight (1.4) because it is the number that closes restaurants first. Prime cost is food cost plus labor cost as a share of sales; profitable operators keep it at or under 60%. Above 65% you are structurally unprofitable no matter how busy you are, and above 70% you are actively bleeding. Revenue mix (direct vs third-party) carries the second-heaviest weight (1.3) because it is both a major cost driver and the fastest lever to move. When the majority of your revenue runs through marketplaces charging 15% to 30% commission, you are handing away the exact margin that separates survivors from closures. Moving repeat customers to a commission-free direct channel keeps 100% of every sale and, just as important, hands you the customer data the marketplace otherwise keeps. Repeat-customer rate (1.2) and cash runway (1.2) are the next tier. A low repeat rate means you are buying every order twice through paid acquisition; thin runway means one slow month can end the business. Labor (1.1) sits just below because it is a large, controllable cost with real slack in most operations. Menu differentiation (0.9), tech-stack maturity (0.9), and review volume (0.8) carry lighter weights. They matter, but they act as multipliers on the heavier levers rather than as primary killers. A distinctive menu, a modern stack, and a deep review base all make the direct channel and repeat engine work better, which is why they still count. The highest-impact fix is computed as the lever with the largest value of weight times headroom, where headroom is 100 minus your current lever score. That surfaces the one change that lifts your total score the most per unit of effort, which for most at-risk operators turns out to be revenue mix.

The survival score walkthrough

At-risk single-location operator: prime cost 63%, labor 32%, 30% direct revenue, 18% repeat rate, 4 months runway, common menu, ~100 reviews, POS only

Prime cost 60% to 65% (weight 1.4)68/100
− Labor 30% to 35% (weight 1.1)50/100
− Direct revenue 20% to 40% (weight 1.3)42/100
− Repeat rate 15% to 25% (weight 1.2)45/100
+ Runway 3 to 6 months (weight 1.2)76/100
Menu solid but common (weight 0.9)45/100
Reviews 50 to 150 (weight 0.8)45/100
− Tech POS only (weight 0.9)40/100
Weighted survival score53/100
BandAmber, at risk but fixable
+ Highest-impact fix (largest weighted gap)Direct revenue mix
Industry insight

Why revenue mix is usually the top fix

Two levers tie for the biggest weighted gap in most at-risk restaurants: prime cost and revenue mix. Prime cost is slow and structural to move (re-costing menus, renegotiating suppliers, re-scheduling labor takes months). Revenue mix moves in weeks. Every order you shift from a marketplace taking 15% to 30% to a commission-free direct channel does two things at once: it recovers that commission as margin (which also lowers your effective prime cost as a share of net revenue) and it captures the customer's contact data so you can drive the repeat orders that lift another heavily weighted lever. One change, three levers improved. That is why the calculator most often surfaces revenue mix as the single highest-impact fix.

Key Takeaway

If your score lands in the amber or red band, the fastest, most controllable lever is almost always revenue mix. Shifting repeat customers from third-party marketplaces that charge 15% to 30% commission to a commission-free direct channel lets you keep 100% of every sale, own your customer data, and fund the repeat-order engine that lifts your survival odds from several directions at once.

Restaurant survival score FAQ

What is a good restaurant survival score?

A score of 70 or higher sits in the green band and signals strong 5-year odds: you are running the controllable levers the way profitable operators do. 45 to 69 is the amber band, the fragile middle where most closures happen, meaning your fundamentals are salvageable but at least one heavily weighted lever is working against you. Under 45 is the red band, high risk, where multiple controllable levers are misaligned at once and you should act on the highest-impact fix immediately.

What are the 8 levers the score measures?

Prime cost (food plus labor as a share of sales, benchmark at or under 60%), labor cost as a share of sales (benchmark 25% to 30%), share of revenue that is direct vs third-party marketplaces (benchmark majority direct), repeat-customer rate (benchmark 25% or more), cash runway in months (benchmark 3+), menu differentiation, review volume and rating, and tech-stack maturity. Each is scored 0 to 100 against a profitable-operator benchmark, then combined into a weighted average.

Why does prime cost carry the most weight?

Prime cost is the single number that closes restaurants first. It combines food cost and labor cost as a share of sales. Profitable operators keep it at or under 60%. Above 65% you are structurally unprofitable regardless of how busy the dining room looks, and above 70% you are actively losing money on volume. Because it is both the strongest predictor of failure and a number every operator can measure, it carries the heaviest weight in the score.

Why does the calculator keep pointing me to direct ordering?

Because for most at-risk operators, revenue mix has the largest weighted gap between where they are and where a profitable operator sits, and it is the fastest lever to move. Marketplaces charge 15% to 30% commission on every order, which is often the exact margin between survival and closure. Shifting orders to a commission-free direct channel recovers that margin, lowers your effective prime cost, and captures customer data that fuels repeat orders. It is not a default recommendation; it is what the weighting math surfaces when marketplace dependence is high.

How is this different from the break-even or commission calculator?

The commission and break-even calculators answer a narrow financial question: how much does marketplace commission cost you, and when does a flat-fee direct platform pay for itself. The survival score is a broader diagnostic across 8 operational levers, only one of which is revenue mix. Use the survival score to find your weakest lever, then use the commission or break-even calculator to size the dollars once you know revenue mix is the fix.

Is the survival score a prediction that my restaurant will close?

No. It is a diagnostic, not a forecast. It measures how your controllable levers compare to profitable operators and points you at the single change that improves your odds the most right now. Two restaurants with the same score can end up in very different places depending on which levers they fix and how fast. The value is in the highest-impact fix, not in the number itself.

How often should I re-run the assessment?

Re-run it monthly, or after any material change: a supplier renegotiation, a schedule overhaul, a marketing push that shifts revenue toward your direct channel, or a jump in review volume. Watching the gauge move as you change a single lever confirms the change is holding and helps you decide which lever to attack next.

Related resources

Restaurant success rateRestaurant failure rateCommission calculatorBreak-even calculatorDoorDash fee calculatorCommission-free ordering guideBook a demoPricing

Next steps

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