Restaurant Industry Outlook 2027: 10 Forecasts From 80+ Sources

Last verified: October 2026. Every number links to its source, forecasts are labeled as forecasts, and vendor studies are labeled as vendor studies.

Picture the owner of a two-location taqueria at the end of the bar after close in late 2026 (an illustrative scene, not a real restaurant). The chairs are up, the walk-in is locked, and the laptop is open to a file called "2027 budget."

Two more tabs sit beside it: the menu price spreadsheet, with an empty column for next year's prices, and a state notice that the minimum wage goes up on January 1.

Every number in that budget is a bet on next year. How far can the menu go before the regulars notice? Will beef keep climbing? Will the Friday rush still be a rush?

This page is built for that night: the best 2027 forecasts and the freshest verified data from USDA, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve, the National Restaurant Association, Technomic, Circana, company filings, and academic research, in one outlook for US independents.

I grew up in my family's small food business in India. We had no brand and no storefront, just a local market and regulars who trusted us. I learned margins by counting every rupee, and I learned what it feels like when a middleman takes a cut you cannot afford. This outlook exists so you can see 2027 coming, with every source in plain view, before anyone else decides how thin your margin gets.

What does 2027 look like for restaurants?

2027 looks like a slow-growth, high-cost year in which most sales growth comes from bigger checks, not more guests. The NRA expects sales to grow 4.8% (NRA), USDA sees menu prices up 2.6% against 1.8% for groceries (USDA ERS), food costs split, wages rise in at least 13 states, and borrowing stays expensive.

Price figures for 2026 and 2027 are forecasts as of the September 2026 releases, and the 13 is our tally of state announcements.

Will restaurant sales grow in 2027?

Yes, on paper. The National Restaurant Association expects sales growth to strengthen to 4.8% in 2027 (NRA, July 2026), but 2026 says most of that growth will come from bigger checks, not more guests.

In February, the NRA projected 1.3% real growth for 2026 (NRA, February 2026). By July it had cut that to 0.8%, and Technomic's Robert Byrne told a conference audience that "the affordability crisis is absolutely affecting traffic" (Nation's Restaurant News, July 2026).

What the data says. In the NRA's August survey, 51% of operators reported higher same-store sales than a year earlier, but 46% reported lower traffic (NRA, September 2026). The Census Bureau's advance estimate put August restaurant and bar sales 5.8% above a year earlier (Census Bureau), while restaurant prices rose 3.4% (BLS), which leaves real growth near 2.4% by our arithmetic. Circana measured 2025 foodservice traffic down 0.3% (Circana), and its David Portalatin put it plainly: "Growth in foodservice is about winning the battle for market share" (Restaurant Dive).

The sources disagree on real growth: Technomic says 0.7% for 2026 (Nation's Restaurant News), the NRA 0.8%, and one strong Census month implies more. The first two forecast a full inflation-adjusted year, while Census reports one month of nominal sales, since revised. The NRA does not label its 2027 figure nominal or real. And this is not a recession: Fed officials project 2.4% real GDP growth and 4.1% unemployment in 2027 (Federal Reserve).

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. If sales grew, say, 4% and you raised prices 3%, you served about the same number of people. In 2027, growth comes from share or from check, and price alone is running out of room.

Your move for 2027:

• Budget guest counts flat, and make every growth line name where the extra guests come from.
• Track covers weekly, separately from sales, so price increases cannot hide a traffic slide.
• Benchmark your cost structure against the 2026 restaurant profit margin benchmarks.

How much will menu prices rise in 2027?

USDA forecasts restaurant menu prices, which it tracks as food away from home, to rise 2.6% in 2027 after 3.5% in 2026, while grocery prices rise 1.8% after 2.4% (USDA ERS, September 2026). Eating out keeps getting pricier relative to cooking at home, just more slowly.

Picture a guest's week: one grocery run and two takeout orders. Over the 12 months to August 2026, the takeout got 3.4% more expensive and the groceries 2.2% (BLS, September 2026). That gap is small in any one month. It compounds.

What the data says. Restaurant prices rose 4.1% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025, against 1.2% and 2.3% for groceries (USDA ERS price table). Add the forecasts and restaurant prices finish 2027 about 14.7% above 2023, while groceries are up about 7.9% (our arithmetic from the USDA figures). The 2027 restaurant forecast sits below the 20-year average of 3.5%, but its prediction interval runs from 0.2% to 5.1%, so treat it as a midpoint, not a promise.

Guests feel it differently. In Revenue Management Solutions' second-quarter survey, 68% of consumers said restaurant prices were higher and 76% said grocery prices were (FastCasual, August 2026), probably because they pay the grocery bill every week. Among those spending less on restaurants, 47% order cheaper items and 45% choose cheaper restaurants.

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. Blanket increases are the riskiest pricing move of 2027, because your guests are already trading down inside the menu.

Your move for 2027:

• Price item by item, and protect the two or three dishes regulars judge you by.
• Treat 2.6% as a reference point, not a target.
• Rebalance the mix before raising prices, with the 30/30/30 rule for restaurants as a quick check.

Which food costs will rise or fall in 2027?

Beef and frying oil stay expensive in 2027, while chicken, pork, coffee, and cocoa get cheaper and eggs hold near their lower 2026 level, according to USDA (USDA ERS, September 2026) and World Bank forecasts (World Bank, July 2026). What you feature will matter more than how much you raise prices.

On October 9, USDA cut its 2027 beef production forecast again, citing "lower-than-expected feedlot placements in the second half of 2026" (USDA WASDE, October 2026). Production falls from 26.0 billion pounds in 2025 to a projected 24.7 billion in 2027, and steer prices hold near $238 per hundredweight, up from $224.37 in 2025. There is less beef to go around.

What the data says.

• Beef: retail beef is forecast up 9.4% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 (USDA ERS price table), while wholesale beef, closer to what you pay, goes from up 8.5% in 2026 to roughly flat (-0.4%) in 2027 (USDA ERS producer table).
• Fats and oils: wholesale fats and oils were up 21.2% year over year in August and are forecast up 19.2% in 2026 and another 6.9% in 2027 (USDA ERS producer table). That is your fryer oil.
• Eggs: retail eggs fall 29.4% in 2026 and stay roughly flat in 2027, up 0.8% (USDA ERS price table), but farm-level egg prices are forecast to rebound 21.0% from a very low base (USDA ERS producer table).
• Chicken, pork, flour, and dairy: for 2027, wholesale poultry is forecast down 2.9%, pork down 4.3%, and wheat flour down 1.2%, while wholesale dairy edges up 1.2% (USDA ERS producer table).
• Coffee and cocoa: retail coffee was still up 6.1% year over year in August (USDA ERS), but the World Bank expects Arabica coffee prices to fall 14% in 2026 and ease again in 2027, and cocoa prices to drop more than 50% in 2026 before stabilizing (World Bank). USDA forecasts record world coffee production of 189.7 million bags in 2026/27 (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service).

Two disagreements are worth knowing: retail beef keeps rising while wholesale goes flat, and beans get cheaper while retail coffee still rises, because retail prices lag. And tariffs cut both ways: several Fed officials named "the possibility of further tariff increases" as an upside risk to inflation (Federal Reserve minutes, October 2026).

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. A burger-and-fries menu gets the worst of both: beef stays high and the fryer gets more expensive. Breakfast, chicken, and coffee concepts get real relief, as long as they do not treat today's egg price as permanent.

Your move for 2027:

• Re-cost your top 10 sellers with 2027 inputs using the restaurant food cost percentage formula.
• Build features and limited-time items around chicken, pork, and other easing inputs instead of beef.
• Ask your distributor about contract pricing on fryer oil before you accept another increase.
• Renegotiate coffee once lower bean prices reach your roaster's quotes.

What changes for restaurant wages on January 1, 2027?

At least 13 states raise their minimum wage on January 1, 2027, led by Michigan's jump from $13.73 to $15.00 (SBAM), while New York's rate stays frozen and Chicago has paused its tip-credit phase-out.

New York's 2027 wage page opens with a line few owners expected: "The statewide minimum wage rate will not change on January 1, 2027" (New York State). An off-ramp condition was met. The governor has proposed a March 1 increase to $17.60 downstate and $16.55 upstate, which needs the legislature.

California's and Minnesota's 2026 rates come from the California DIR and Minnesota DLI, New Jersey's is its new rate minus the 56-cent increase, and percentages are our arithmetic.

What the data says. Tipped wages move too. Michigan's tipped minimum rises from $5.49 to $6.30 (SBAM), New Jersey's tipped cash wage from $6.05 to $6.61 (NJDOL), and Ohio's from $5.50 to $5.70 (Cleveland 19). Cities run ahead of states: Denver reaches $19.84 (ColoradoBiz). Newsweek, citing Business Tax Deadlines, counts 102 minimum wage changes in 2027 across 20 states and 74 localities (Newsweek, October 2026), so our 13 will grow.

Chicago is the counter-example: its council voted on May 20, 2026 to pause the tip-credit phase-out, holding the tipped minimum at $12.62 and pushing full phase-out to 2030 or 2033, depending on employer size (National Law Review). Florida's $15.00 took effect on September 30, 2026 (Lowndes).

The paperwork changes too. The IRS listed "more than 70 separate occupations" eligible for the new tips deduction, and an automatic service charge the customer cannot change is not a qualified tip (IRS, April 2026). On 2026 W-2s, due to employees and the Social Security Administration by February 1, 2027, employers report cash tips in box 12 with code TP, tipped occupation codes in a new box 14b, and qualified overtime in box 12 with code TT. Workers can deduct up to $25,000 of qualified tips (IRS W-2 instructions).

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. In Michigan, a minimum-wage cook on 40 hours a week costs $50.80 more per week before payroll taxes (our arithmetic). Multiply by your hourly team, and budget it now.

Your move for 2027:

• Load the new rates into payroll before the first 2027 pay period, and re-cost labor-heavy items.
• Map every tipped role to its Treasury tipped occupation code, and fix tip coding in your POS and payroll before December closes.
• Review automatic service charges, which do not count toward the tips deduction, and check your city's ordinance.

How will guests spend at restaurants in 2027?

Guests will keep eating out in 2027 but spend more carefully: gas prices, value hunting, and GLP-1 medications are cutting visits for some households and shrinking orders for others.

Start at the pump. Gasoline was up 27.4% from a year earlier in August (BLS, September 2026), and Technomic found 46% of consumers visiting restaurants less often because of rising gas prices (Nation's Restaurant News, July 2026). A guest 20 minutes away is doing that math.

What the data says.

• Value hunting: 36% of consumers spend more of their disposable income on restaurants than a year ago and 33% less, per Revenue Management Solutions (FastCasual), and nearly half of full-service diners cut visits in a single month of its earlier survey (FSR Magazine).
• GLP-1: 11% of US adults say they take a GLP-1 medication for weight loss, up from 3% in 2024 (Gallup, July 2026), and spending at fast-food restaurants, coffee shops, and other limited-service eateries falls about 8% after a household member starts one (Cornell University).
• Off-premises: nearly 75% of restaurant traffic now happens off-premises, and L.E.K. Consulting notes that "pickup is gaining while delivery weakens" (L.E.K., May 2026).

The GLP-1 sources differ on visits. Cornell measures spending, while Circana finds users' visit frequency "remains stable" with 1% fewer items per trip, and 35% of all diners said in an October survey that they ordered smaller portions for health reasons (Circana, January 2026). Read together: the GLP-1 guest still comes, and orders less.

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. Regulars are not disappearing, but the appetizer, second drink, and dessert are where 2027 pressure shows first.

Your move for 2027:

• Add smaller portions and protein-forward plates at lower price points instead of discounting full-size items.
• Make pickup the fastest and cheapest way to order from you.
• Build one clear value bundle for budget-conscious households.
• Learn what brings guests back from the restaurant customer retention statistics.

Will it be harder to borrow and stay open in 2027?

Yes. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September 2026 and projects holding them near 4.1% through 2027, credit for small businesses is somewhat tight, and independents are shrinking while chains grow (Federal Reserve, September 2026).

The year's bankruptcies are a lesson in debt. True Food Kitchen filed Chapter 11 on October 4 with about $42 million of debt, including merchant cash advances, and closed 12 of 46 restaurants (FastCasual, October 2026). Shari's owner Lena Brands closed 86 locations before filing in May (TheStreet), Salad and Go closed all 70 of its drive-thrus in August (FOX 9), and FAT Brands filed in January after creditors demanded $1.3 billion (Restaurant Dive).

What the data says. The Fed's September hike took its target range to 3.75% to 4% (Federal Reserve), and officials' median projection holds 4.1% through 2027, up from 3.6% in June (Summary of Economic Projections). Most officials judged another increase "would likely be appropriate by year end," and the minutes describe credit as "somewhat tight for private credit loans and small businesses" (FOMC minutes, October 2026).

RestaurantData counted 8,171 closures in the US and Canada in the first half of 2026, and independents made up 83% of casual and family-dining closures (QSR Web, July 2026). Technomic counted 412,498 independent restaurants at the end of 2025, down 2.3%, while the top 500 chains grew their unit count 1.5% (Nation's Restaurant News, April 2026). In the NRA's survey, 42% of operators said their restaurant was not profitable in 2025 (NRA, February 2026).

That looks contradictory, since RestaurantData says chains made up 52.1% of closures (QSR Web). It is not: chains close units but, by Technomic's net count, open even more, while independents lose more than they open.

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. Expensive short-term money is how a bad quarter becomes a bankruptcy, and a 46-unit company can absorb it better than you can.

Your move for 2027:

• Price any new debt at today's rates. The Fed's own projections show no cuts through the end of 2027.
• Avoid merchant cash advances for operating gaps, and keep a rolling 13-week cash forecast.
• Planning a second location? Build the full restaurant opening budget first, and read the restaurant failure rate data on what actually closes restaurants.

Is third-party delivery still worth it for restaurants in 2027?

Mostly as a way to find new customers, not as a profit center. Platforms are growing far faster than restaurants, commissions rose in 2026, and 45% of operators offering third-party delivery told the NRA those orders are not profitable (NRA comments to the FTC, May 2026).

In March, Uber Eats raised its Lite plan from 15% to 20% and began charging 30% on Plus orders from Uber One members (Restaurant Dive, March 2026). Rave Restaurant Group pulled Pizza Inn and Pie Five off the app. "We're going to lose some volume as a result of this," CEO Brandon Solano said. "But at the end of the day, it's volume that we make almost no money on" (TheStreet, April 2026).

What the data says. DoorDash's Marketplace gross order value grew 23% in the second quarter of 2026, excluding its Deliveroo acquisition (DoorDash, August 2026), and Uber's delivery gross bookings grew 25% at constant currency (Uber, August 2026). Against the Census Bureau's 5.8% for restaurant sales, that is roughly four times as fast (our arithmetic).

DoorDash charges 15%, 25%, or 30% per delivery order (DoorDash) and Uber Eats 20%, 25%, or 30% (Uber Eats). In the NRA's preliminary survey of 830 operators, two in three pay an average fee between 15% and 29.9%, and 83% of limited-service operators charge more on app menus (same NRA filing).

Regulators are circling. The FTC opened an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on delivery fees on April 14 (FTC), and we found no proposed rule as of October 12. New York City, which caps app fees at 15% for delivery (NYC DCWP), "will be setting a minimum pay rate for all delivery apps in early 2027" (NYC DCWP). Meanwhile, new venues at DoorDash's SevenRooms grew more than 100% year over year (DoorDash), and Grubhub's parent bought Claim, a cash-back app for dine-in and pickup (TechCrunch), so the platforms are moving into your dining room too.

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. Treat the apps as paid acquisition. Losing a quarter of one order is fine if that guest's next five come to you directly.

Your move for 2027:

• Calculate your real take rate on each platform with the 2026 delivery app commission rates.
• Price your app menus to cover the commission, as most limited-service operators already do.
• Give marketplace guests a reason to order direct next time, within each platform's rules.
• Compare your own drivers, Uber Direct, and DoorDash Drive with the in-house delivery cost breakdown, and see the online ordering trends for 2026 and 2027 for the technology side.

How will AI search change how guests find restaurants in 2027?

AI assistants are becoming a front door for finding restaurants, and sometimes for ordering, but they favor restaurants whose menus, prices, and listings are easy to verify, and they send orders into restaurants' existing ordering systems.

In 2024, Google shut down Order with Google, saying "people generally prefer to complete their food orders on partner and merchant websites" (Verdict Foodservice, February 2024). On August 6, 2026, it came back. Ask Maps, the Gemini chat inside Google Maps, can now take "order a pepperoni pizza for me to pick up on my way home," find open restaurants on the route, and build a cart (Nation's Restaurant News, August 2026). It works with Toast and Square online ordering, with Uber Eats in the works. Toast says those orders "do not carry third-party commission fees" (Digital Transactions), and Restaurant Business reports that the only requirement is a Google Business Profile (Restaurant Business).

What the data says about AI ordering. On July 1, Square put US restaurants that use Square Online Ordering into ChatGPT and Claude, routing orders to the POS without "additional marketplace commissions" (Square). ChatGPT added reservations with OpenTable, Resy, and Yelp on August 10 (OpenAI). But buying inside the chat has stumbled: OpenAI said the first version of Instant Checkout "did not offer the level of flexibility that we aspire to provide" (TechCrunch, March 2026). The assistant recommends; your own ordering system closes the sale.

What the data says about AI visibility. Most restaurants are not recommended at all.

• A vendor study by Local Falcon, which sells local search tracking, found 74.9% of 10,000 US restaurants invisible in Google's AI recommendations, against 19.6% on Google Maps, with independents appearing more often than chains (Local Falcon, June 2026).
• An academic census of 4,776 cafes, restaurants, and bars in Bali, Indonesia (not the US) found 85.6% were never recommended by ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or Perplexity. Having a website (odds ratio 1.92) and listed prices (1.54) predicted inclusion, and star rating did not (arXiv, August 2026).
• For restaurants, Google Business Profile supplies 45% of AI citations and Yelp 21.8%, per BrightLocal, which sells local SEO tools (BrightLocal, August 2026).

Surveys disagree on how many guests ask AI: 22% have used it to choose a restaurant in a DoorDash and SevenRooms survey (DoorDash), against 60% in a survey commissioned by Menufy, an ordering vendor (FSR Magazine, September 2026). Wording, timing, and sponsors differ. Menufy's sharpest number is its smallest: only 2% would order from an unfamiliar AI-recommended restaurant without checking another source.

Be wary of anyone selling AI-answer tricks. A NeurIPS benchmark found that "most current C-SEO methods are not only largely ineffective but also frequently have a negative impact" (arXiv, 2025), and a July 2026 review of 45 studies concluded that "no reviewed technique shows a stable, longitudinal, cross-platform causal effect on organic discoverability" (arXiv, July 2026).

Here's what I've seen firsthand. In September, a restaurant that already ran its own ordering site and its own drivers, and had a large Instagram following, asked an AI assistant for an alternative to its setup and found DirectOrders in the answer. It was our first demo request that came from AI search. One call is not a trend, but it convinced me the AI front door is already open for restaurants that publish clear facts about themselves.

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. You do not need an AI strategy. You need complete, consistent facts everywhere an assistant looks, and ordering that can take the order.

Your move for 2027:

• Complete your Google Business Profile, and publish your menu with prices as text on your own website.
• Ask your POS or ordering vendor whether it connects to Ask Maps. The POS and online ordering integrations chart shows which systems connect, and how.
• Test monthly with the steps in how to get your restaurant recommended by ChatGPT, and use this AI search visibility overview for the listing basics.

Should restaurants let AI answer the phone in 2027?

Yes for overflow and routine orders, no as the only option. The chains' 2026 results show voice AI works when guests can reach a person easily, and backfires when it is forced on them.

Taco Bell's drive-thru voice AI survived a viral prank in 2025, when a customer tried to order 18,000 cups of water, and now runs in more than 890 restaurants across 38 states (Nation's Restaurant News, July 2026). Burger King, testing voice AI in about 50 to 70 drive-thrus, found that "there are drive offs because guests don't want to talk to a bot," said Chakri Somisetti, its vice president of brand technologies (Nation's Restaurant News, September 2026). Chick-fil-A's CEO told CNBC its drive-thrus will stay "human to human" (Restaurant Business, October 2026).

What the data says.

• Appeal: 23% of consumers find AI drive-thru ordering appealing and 46% unappealing, per Technomic (Nation's Restaurant News).
• Perception gap: about 22% of consumers prefer AI agents, while businesses believe the figure is roughly 40%, per Metrigy (Fortune, July 2026).
• Adoption: only 6% of operators use AI for customer orders, though roughly six in 10 millennial and Gen Z adults say they would order from an AI bot (Restaurant Dive, February 2026).
• Missed calls: in 12,091 calls analyzed by Revmo, which sells AI phone agents, quick-service restaurants answered 59.9% and full-service 91.0%, and poorly configured AI scored below humans on caller sentiment (3.30 against 3.90) (Revmo, August 2026).

What guests say and do diverge: younger guests say they would order from a bot, yet drive-thru guests leave when a bot is the only option. AI that handles the routine and hands off fast earns its place.

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. The phone is where voice AI fits an independent best: the call that rings out during the Friday rush is a lost order.

Your move for 2027:

• Count missed calls for one week before buying anything, and script the basics with the phone ordering checklist.
• Start with overflow and after-hours calls, and route complaints, allergy questions, and catering to a person every time.
• Compare options in the guide to AI tools for restaurants, or see how voice AI phone ordering hands calls to staff.

Why do direct ordering and customer data matter more in 2027?

Because every new channel in 2027, from AI assistants to marketplace loyalty programs, competes to own your regulars, and restaurants that own their ordering, menu data, and customer list keep the most margin and options.

Google's own path makes the point: after leaving ordering in 2024, it returned in 2026 by sending orders into restaurants' own Toast and Square systems (Digital Transactions, August 2026).

What the data says. In an NCR Voyix survey, 58% of customers said they prefer ordering delivery through a restaurant's own app or website (Restaurant Dive, January 2025), and Olo CEO Noah Glass noted in the same article that with marketplaces, "the brand gets zero data about who that guest is." A Popmenu survey put the preference for a restaurant's own website at 94%, but its question told respondents that third-party fees "tend to be higher," so treat that as an upper bound (Popmenu via PR Newswire). Vendor loyalty data points the same way: 66% of consumers order more often from restaurants where they are active loyalty members (DoorDash and SevenRooms).

I talk to restaurant owners every week. One September demo call stayed with me: a multi-location family restaurant group had a different online ordering vendor at each location and a group website that was down, so its menus and customer data were scattered across vendors. Here's what I think: in a year when AI assistants read your menu from wherever they can find it, one source of truth for your menu and your customers is worth more than any single feature.

What it means for a 1 to 3 location independent. The goal is not to quit the marketplaces. It is making sure the guest who found you there can find you directly next time.

Your move for 2027:

• Put every location on one ordering system and one menu source.
• Collect phone numbers and emails with clear consent, following the text message marketing rules for restaurants.
• Ask every vendor, in writing, whether you can export your customer list if you leave.
• For the marketing channels that bring guests back, see restaurant marketing trends for 2026 and 2027.

What are industry experts saying about 2027?

Heading into 2027, the analysts who have spoken point one way: win share, protect margin, and keep hospitality human.

• Robert Byrne, Technomic: "The affordability crisis is absolutely affecting traffic." (Nation's Restaurant News, July 21, 2026)
• David Henkes, Technomic: "It's harder than ever, for the industry in general, but for independents in particular to operate." (Nation's Restaurant News, April 29, 2026)
• David Portalatin, Circana: "Growth in foodservice is about winning the battle for market share." (Restaurant Dive, January 8, 2026)
• Victor Fernandez, Black Box Intelligence: it is "virtually impossible for a unit to remain viable after losing 30% or more of its peak sales." (Restaurant Dive, March 6, 2026)
• Rich Shank, Technomic: "I'm not saying kiosks and AI ordering don't make sense, but it is not for everyone." (Nation's Restaurant News, September 24, 2026)
• Nik Allen, Euromonitor International: "Public-facing agentic failures are the biggest threat to brand loyalty." (Restaurant Dive, October 7, 2026)
• Jonathan Maze, Restaurant Business, on Chick-fil-A keeping its drive-thrus human: "This is the right move." (Restaurant Business, October 7, 2026)
• Jim Emling, Datassential, releasing the first major 2027 trends report: "With 70% of consumers optimistic about the year ahead, now is the time to innovate." (Blue Book Services, October 7, 2026)

Several forecasts are not out yet. Baum + Whiteman's newest report is still its 2026 edition (Baum + Whiteman), and af&co.'s 2027 report, Technomic's 2027 predictions, and the NRA's 2027 State of the Restaurant Industry are still to come. Expect most in November and December, with the NRA's early in 2027. We will add each one here as it publishes.

The 2027 restaurant planning calendar

Put these dates on the office calendar. "Expected" means past practice, not an announcement.

The 2026 IRS mileage rate came out on December 29, 2025 and rose to 76 cents a mile from July 1, 2026 (IRS), which matters if you reimburse drivers. USDA updates its outlook around the 25th of each month (USDA ERS), and Fed dates are tentative until confirmed.

How we built this outlook

We read government statistics (USDA, BLS, Census), Federal Reserve releases, state wage announcements, NRA research, research firms such as Technomic and Circana, SEC filings, academic papers, and vendor surveys, each labeled with what the vendor sells. We re-opened every source on October 12, 2026 to confirm each number, its wording, and its date. Forecasts and actuals are labeled, our own arithmetic is flagged, and disagreements are shown and explained.

We left out what we could not verify on the source page: Technomic's members-only 2027 segment forecasts, Black Box Intelligence's monthly 2026 series, Grubhub's official commission tiers, the 2026 status of California's fast-food wage council, and long-range GLP-1 adoption projections. The only non-US data is the labeled Bali study.

How to cite this page

Cite this outlook freely, and cite the original source for any single statistic. Suggested citation:

DirectOrders, "Restaurant Industry Outlook 2027", updated October 2026,
https://www.directorders.com/blog/restaurant-industry-outlook-2027

Where DirectOrders fits

DirectOrders is commission-free online ordering for independent restaurants on a flat monthly fee. Pro is $249 a month, and Pro + Voice is $349 a month with 500 AI phone minutes included, with a 14-day free trial. Every plan includes a branded website with online ordering plus SMS and email marketing, and voice AI on Pro + Voice hands complaint, allergy, and catering calls to a person.

Deliveries go through your own drivers, Uber Direct, or DoorDash Drive. Direct orders pay out the same day, and you own your customer data. DirectOrders runs alongside Toast, Square, Clover, Lightspeed, and Revel rather than replacing them; POS order sync is a planned integration path, not a live connection today. Here is how the DirectOrders online ordering system works.

Sources

Economy and sales

• National Restaurant Association: 2026 industry forecast, Feb 12, 2026; midyear outlook, Jul 22, 2026; sales and traffic survey, Sep 30, 2026
• Nation's Restaurant News: Technomic on traffic, Jul 21, 2026; losing independents, Apr 29, 2026
• Circana: Order Up, May 4, 2026
• Restaurant Dive: 2026 trends, Jan 8, 2026; Black Box closures, Mar 6, 2026; FAT Brands filing, Jan 27, 2026
• US Census Bureau: August 2026 retail sales, Sep 16, 2026; release schedule
• Federal Reserve: statement and projections, Sep 16, 2026; minutes, Oct 7, 2026; calendar
• Closures and filings: QSR Web, Jul 28, 2026; TheStreet, May 19, 2026; FOX 9, Aug 4, 2026; FastCasual, Oct 5, 2026

Food and menu prices

• USDA Economic Research Service: Food Price Outlook, consumer price table, and producer price table, Sep 25, 2026; schedule
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: CPI, August 2026, Sep 11, 2026
• USDA: WASDE-676, Oct 9, 2026; Coffee: World Markets and Trade, Jul 2026
• World Bank: Beverage prices retreat, Jul 7, 2026
• FastCasual: Q2 2026 pricing trends, Aug 6, 2026

Labor

• State wage sources: California and FAQ; Washington; Connecticut; New Jersey; Michigan (SBAM); Colorado (ColoradoBiz); Arizona (KTAR); Minnesota and rates; Ohio (Cleveland 19); Virginia; Maine; Montana; Rhode Island; New York; Alaska; all published between June 2025 and October 2026
• National Law Review: Chicago pauses its tip credit phaseout, May 28, 2026
• Lowndes: Florida reaches $15.00, Sep 2, 2026
• Newsweek: 2027 minimum wage increases, Oct 5, 2026
• Internal Revenue Service: IR-2026-49, Apr 10, 2026; 2026 W-2 instructions; mileage rates; IR-2025-128, Dec 29, 2025

Guests

• Gallup: GLP-1 usage reaches new high, Jul 7, 2026
• Cornell Chronicle: Ozempic and the foods Americans buy, Dec 19, 2025
• Circana: GLP-1 users and restaurants, Jan 14, 2026
• FSR Magazine: Full-service diners cut visits, Mar 25, 2026
• L.E.K. Consulting: 2026 Restaurant Playbook, May 2026

Delivery

• DoorDash: Q2 2026 results, Aug 5, 2026; pricing
• Uber: Q2 2026 results, Aug 5, 2026; Uber Eats pricing
• Restaurant Dive: Uber Eats fee increase, Mar 10, 2026; NCR Voyix survey, Jan 30, 2025
• TheStreet: Pizza Inn leaves Uber Eats, Apr 2, 2026
• National Restaurant Association: comments to the FTC, May 18, 2026
• Federal Trade Commission: delivery fee rulemaking notice, Apr 14, 2026
• NYC Department of Consumer and Worker Protection: fee caps, Apr 2026; delivery worker pay
• TechCrunch: Grubhub parent buys Claim, Jan 20, 2026
• Popmenu via PR Newswire: dining study, Sep 30, 2026

AI and technology

• Nation's Restaurant News: Ask Maps ordering, Aug 7, 2026; Taco Bell voice AI, Jul 8, 2026; Burger King drive-thru AI, Sep 24, 2026
• Digital Transactions: Square and Toast in Google Maps, Aug 6, 2026
• Restaurant Business: Google gets back into ordering, Aug 11, 2026; Chick-fil-A and drive-thru AI, Oct 7, 2026
• Verdict Foodservice: Google ends direct ordering, Feb 2, 2024
• Square: ChatGPT and Claude integrations, Jul 1, 2026
• OpenAI: ChatGPT release notes, Aug 10, 2026
• TechCrunch: OpenAI and Instant Checkout, Mar 24, 2026
• Local Falcon: Restaurant AI Visibility Index, Jun 12, 2026
• arXiv: Invisible to the Machine, Aug 7, 2026; C-SEO Bench, Oct 20, 2025; critical survey of GEO, Jul 15, 2026
• BrightLocal: Sources for local AI search, Aug 26, 2026
• DoorDash and SevenRooms: 2026 Restaurant Industry Trends Report, 2026
• FSR Magazine: AI and independent restaurants, Sep 29, 2026
• Restaurant Dive: NRA AI adoption data, Feb 18, 2026; AI pushback risk, Oct 7, 2026
• Fortune: Customers prefer humans, Jul 30, 2026
• Revmo: State of Restaurant Calls 2026, Aug 6, 2026
• Blue Book Services: Datassential 2027 trends, Oct 7, 2026
• Baum + Whiteman: Trend reports